Paragould, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

789
FXUS64 KMEG 100341
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

- Summer heat has returned and will stay just above normal for
  the next week. Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid
  90s with heat indices around 100 degrees.

- Rain chances remain low (up to 20 percent) through Sunday afternoon,
  but increase next week. Daily precipitation chances will be 40
  to 50 percent starting Monday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

Dry air is filtering in from the north, which will keep rain chances
essentially negligible for most areas on Sunday. If anywhere were to
see a stray shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, it would be
over north Mississippi where the dry air has the least influence.
This drier air will also help negate fog potential overnight despite
calm winds at the surface. Expect seasonable temperatures in the low
to mid 90s with heat indices hovering around 100 degrees for the
next several days.

Pattern-wise, there really isn`t much going on aloft this week. The
flow over us will be pretty much zonal through about midweek, which
is the reason for such benign weather and seasonable August heat.
Will note that despite lack of upper level support for the central
CONUS, the Bermuda High is in full force. This will allow southerly
flow to funnel warm, moist Gulf Coast air at the surface up toward
the Mid-South next week. As a result, humidity and rain chances will
be on the rise throughout the work week.

Forecast surface analyses depict a long cold front draping from the
Great Lakes down through the ArkLaTex by Tuesday morning. While it`s
more than likely going to stall out before it reaches us, that is
our best shot at organized rainfall this period. The remainder of
the week`s 30-40% chance PoPs are mostly in the form of isolated
summertime convection aided by diurnal heating. Heat headlines do
not look necessary for the vast majority of the area through next
week, but we may end up needing some localized Heat Advisories for
the MS Delta any point from Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

No significant aviation weather concerns over the next 30 hours,
as high pressure brings relatively light winds. 00Z HRRR depicts
isolated SHRA/TSRA around 22Z Sunday, but isn`t corroborated by
the LAMP or other short term guidance. In any case, SHRA/TSRA
probabilities remain below mentionable criteria for the TAFs. In
summary, a persistence forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

Afternoon MinRHs will remain at or above 50% with light winds
through the end of next week. Rain chances increase to 30-40% next
week, though Tuesday looks like our best shot at wetting rains.
Expect seasonably hot and humid conditions with isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms most of the week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB