Paragould, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

700
FXUS64 KMEG 231444
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
944 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 942 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

- The current heat wave will persist through the remainder of the
  work week. Daily heat headlines are anticipated as heat index
  values exceed 105 degrees.

- Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will occur each day
  through at least midweek, but provide little to no relief from
  the heat.

- Temperatures will return back to the lower 90s by next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Updated to extend the Heat Advisory through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Temperatures are running a degree or two higher than the past
couple of nights with readings mainly in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Patchy light fog is possible over the next few hours due to
clear skies, nearly 100% humidity, and light to calm winds.

Aloft, a large 597 dam ridge is centered over the Ohio Valley with
a pair of troughs located over the Northern Plains and the
Northern Sierra respectively. The pattern will remain stagnant
over the next 48 hours as the ridge continues to expand and the
Sierra trough deepens. This will result in a persistence forecast
through at least late week. High temperatures will peak in the
middle 90s each day with mid to upper 70s each night. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect from now through Tuesday night.
Probabilities remain medium-high (>75%) for heat headlines
continuing for both Wednesday and Thursday.

The only forecast change is the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms today. HREF guidance and model soundings show a
largely uncapped atmosphere across a good portion of the Mid-
South this afternoon. Coverage will still remain in the 15 to 24
percent range, but CI may occur a little earlier this afternoon
than the past couple of days and create locally higher coverage
due to outflow boundary wars. Nonetheless, heat and humidity will
combine once again to push heat indices to the 105 F mark,
warranting yet another heat advisory. Tuesday will be equally
hot, if not a tick higher, as the 597 dam ridge center retrogrades
SW back over the TN River Valley.

The westerlies will finally begin to accelerate by late week, in
response to a weakening ridge. Upper level flow will become more
zonal and allow a few weak perturbations to translate east into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Although strong organized storms
are not expected, convection coverage will increase into the 30 to
40 percent range. Additionally, temperatures will cool slightly
due to increase clouds and convection. Upper level flow will veer
more northwesterly early next week.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

VFR conditions continue with southerly flow. Convective initiation
could fire up a bit earlier than the previous days, but coverage
still looks scarce with low confidence of direct impacts.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Hot and humid conditions will persist through late week. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will occur each afternoon, but
widespread wetting rain is not expected.

20 foot winds will remain less than 7 knots each day with nearly
calm winds overnight each night. Light patchy fog is possible each
morning, but widespread fog is not anticipated.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...DNM